Will HTML5 meet the needs of those of us who would at least like it to be as good as Flash?

It's still a bit early to tell, but some engineers at Google put an early version to test on a reasonably challenging project, and it could definitely have done worse - it actually looks pretty cool.

http://venturebeat.com/2010/04/01/google-brings-quake-2-to-the-browser-with-html5/

It's hard to feel good about the drubbing which Adobe is getting right now after doing such a good job of promoting rich interfaces generally. The flip side of this is that I've just spent the last year or so putting a Flash ( Flex ) app into production, so I can certainly understand Steve Jobs impatience with Flash as a platform.

The big win for everyone will be the ubiquity of a common platform. The history of Flash has suggested, to this viewer anyway, that it is just too expensive for one company to support a truly universal RIA platform, and do it well.